How to Hold the House: Driving African American Turnout in Cincinnati

 

By Steve Phillips and Dr. Julie Martínez Ortega

Map courtesy of Ballotpedia

Incumbency is supposed to have its privileges, but somebody forgot to tell that to the Ohio Republicans who drastically altered OH-01 after the 2020 Census, essentially leaving their incumbent Steve Chabot to sink or swim as Democratic challenger Greg Landsman and party members go all out in an attempt to flip the seat and retain control of the House of Representatives.

HIGH LEVEL

Although Warren County, Chabot’s core area of support, remains in the district, he must now find a way to pull out a win with a sizable chunk of majority Democratic Cincinnati and other cities heavily populated with people of color. Failure to do so will end his almost 30-year term as a member of Congress. 

Cincinnati, overall, is considered one of the most segregated geographical areas in the country, and the section of Cincinnati that is now part of OH-01 is heavily African American. It’s also home to the neighborhoods with the highest concentrations of Asian American residents. The newly drawn OH-01 includes the east of the river portion of the city of Cincinnati, which is over 41% African American. Another 6.4% are AAPI and Latino. 

The Democratic nominee and current Cincinnati City Council Member Greg Landsman is a young and energetic Harvard graduate with deep roots in Ohio’s faith-based community. He obtained a master’s degree in theological studies while in Cambridge and he worked as the Director of Faith Based and Community Initiatives under former Ohio Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Landsman also worked as the Executive Director of The Strive Partnership, a Cincinnati initiative to improve student education outcomes.

Chabot’s extreme positions on choice, LGBTQ+ rights, and privacy overall—including in contraception use—are in sharp contrast to Landsman. Chabot voted against the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2022 and the Ensuring Access to Abortion Act of 2022. Chabot’s voting history gives Landsman great examples of how a vote for Chabot is a vote for a GOP-controlled Congress that would pummel women’s freedom and reproductive rights. 

NMI RATING

The mainstream prognosticators rate the district as a Toss-Up. Cook Political Report has the race in its “Republican Toss Up” column despite assigning the district a PVI score of D+2.

The NMI rating for OH-01 is D+6, making it “Likely Democrat” and well within the reach of Democratic challenger, Greg Landsman. Approximately 24% of the district’s electorate are people of color but in past elections they’ve trailed their white counterparts with respect to voter turnout by 21 percentage points. 

If Landsman can motivate the African American community in Cincinnati to turnout at higher rates than they have historically, he has a solid shot at flipping the district.

GROUPS ON THE GROUND

One of the main issues motivating the Ohio electorate is the “right to choose” and Planned Parenthood Action (PPA) is at the forefront of leading the voter engagement efforts around the issue. When the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Ohio’s S.B. 23, which would ban abortions starting at approximately 6 weeks, went into effect. 

Thanks to support from National President Alexis McGill Johnson, PPA Ohio led the charge and secured a temporary restraining order and later, a preliminary injunction to keep the status quo laws in effect until the matter could be more fully examined. 

FINANCIALS

As of September 30, 2022, Republican incumbent Steve Chabot has raised $1,735,105. Meanwhile, Democratic challenger Greg Landsman has managed to outraise Chabot, bringing in $2,076,606. 

 

PROJECTED VOTES IN 2022

If eligible voters of color in this newly drawn district turn out to vote at the same rates as 2020 white voters in OH-01, Democrats could easily win this seat by a substantial margin.

  • In 2022, there would be over 27,359 additional voters of color in OH-01 casting ballots if they turned out to vote at the same rate as white OH-01 voters in 2020.

  • If those additional voters of color supported the Democratic candidate at the same rates as they did in 2020, Democrats could see almost 23,418 additional votes for their nominee.

  • Chabot won the 2020 House race against Democrat Kate Schroder by 27,538 votes, which was 7 percentage points. But the 2022 voters in the newly drawn OH-01 voted for Biden over Trump by more than almost 35,000 votes, so Chabot has a high hill to climb in order to keep his seat. 

 
 
Steve Phillips